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The 2008 financial crisis caused economies to suffer from the greatest collapse in output since the “Great Depression.” The post-crisis period was particularly challenging for the European Union (EU).
As you will recall, many EU member nations faced a sovereign debt crisis threatening to topple these nations. This period was very significant because it had the potential to create sufficient momentum needed to dissolve the EU. This is something the establishment would do anything to prevent.
Viable solutions were needed to deal with the drastic economic conditions seen in Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece.
Two establishment economists at Harvard University, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff used their influence convince government officials that the best solution for the economic collapse faced by the EU was to impose austerity in order to reduce high levels of government debt.
The push for austerity would later gain support in Washington based on the conclusions made by Reinhart and Rogoff.
The argument for austerity was based on a 2010 research paper by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. The paper concluded that nations with a debt-to-GDP greater than 90% were likely to face a severe drop off in economic growth due to a higher percentage of government revenues going to service debt obligations.
Thereafter, the credit rating of nations with these debt levels was expected to plummet, leading to very high refinancing rates (we published written and video presentations pointing to the most important factors leading to a sovereign debt crisis; see 2012 Mid-Year Global Economic Analysis, p.p. 169-182; see Global Economic Analysis: The Big Picture video presentation, December 23, 2011).
With EU officials searching for ways to deal with distressed economies of its member nations, the conclusions made by Reinhart and Rogoff were used to justify harsh austerity measures in Europe. The results were devastating. Strangely, the research paper
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