Opening Statement from the June 2021 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the June 2021 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on June 4, 2021 (pre-market release)

Overview

New coronavirus variants continue to spread throughout the world. The latest mutation has been discovered in Vietnam and is related to the Delta variant (B.1.617.2 variant) which was first discovered in India. Thus far, there are no data that indicates currently known variants are resistant to approved vaccines.

Given the media’s focus on highlighting the most severe manifestations of the coronavirus pandemic, for some it might be difficult to believe that the global economic recovery remains on an uptrend. Consumer and business demand have rebounded significantly in recent months, pointing to higher commodities pricing. We have already seen many commodities reach multi-year highs. Notably, some commodities have begun to correct in price after having recently reached record-highs (e.g. lumber, copper, and palladium).

Although the U.S. economy is experiencing a reflationary surge due to pent-up demand, supply chain bottlenecks and record-low interest rates could progress into a more lasting period of inflation down the road. But