Opening Statement from the March 2016 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the March 2016 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on March 6, 2016

In late 2015 we discussed a speculative forecast of a sizable rally in the commodities market expected in 2016. What we are seeing now could be that rally.

The recent rally in commodities follows what has been a longer rally seen in crude oil. Gold and silver have also participated in this rally although we believe a good deal of the recent upside in precious metals has been due to manipulation by the media and various participants. Traders should take note that such manipulation rarely ends well for those who get caught up into the hype. Finally, the rally in crude has also catalyzed the stock market rally.

For several years we have been discussing our concerns of weak global demand as the primary cause of global disinflation and periodic deflation in select nations. This persistent trend of reduced output has been responsible for... 

It has now been more than one year since we first warned investors about a new economic period which we believed could begin as early as 2015. We previously discussed numerous events which have confirmed entry into this new economic period (see Volume 8, September 2015 CCPM Forecaster Opening Statement). In the latest chapter of this new period...

As we have previously stated in the Intelligent Investor and Market Forecaster, based on the current macroeconomic landscape, we believe short-term interest rates in the US are likely to...