Opening Statement from the January 2016 Intelligent Investor
Originally published on January 6, 2016
As expected, Q3 earnings declined y-o-y, but the downturn was not as bad as previously estimated. As you can imagine, the sectors most responsible for driving the earnings decline was Energy and Materials. We continue to believe Q4 earnings will...
Interestingly, the latest (bottom-up) EPS estimates for the S&P 500 for 2016 indicate ... Aside from the fact that bottom-up estimates tend to be more aggressive than top-down estimates, we do not believe... We will continue to monitor all major variables that influence earnings in order to formulate our own earnings estimates. This material will be covered in the market forecasting presentations when we come across relevant findings.
As forecast in the December US stock market forecast, stock market volatility soared once the Fed’s December 16th interest rate decision was announced. We believe the stock market sold off after the rate hike because investors had already priced in a rate hike, as reflected by a rapid rise in the stock market in the days prior to December 16. We discussed this possibility in the December US stock market forecast.
Recently, the global capital markets sold off due to worries over China’s stock market and economy. Currently, the US stock market is at the bottom of the longer-term trading range we have remained focused on for more than one year. However, as discussed in the December US stock market forecast, this longer-term support has not nearly been as strong or reliable ever since the stock market collapsed in late August 2015.
We have been warning investors about the possibility of events from China to adversely impact the US capital markets. Once again the world witnessed the impact of China’s volatile and risky stock market on Monday, as the DJIA reacted to the one-day shutdown of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange due to a 6.9% and 8.2% decline, respectively. In response, the global stock markets sold off, with Germany and Japan collapsing by 4.3% and 3.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the US markets closed down by around 1.5%, although the DJIA collapsed to an intraday low of 450 points before closing fairly strong to end the day down by 276. Since then, the US markets have continued to weaken.
Recall we previously stated that we felt the DJIA would remain in a trading range over the next few months until something surfaces to change valuations and sentiment. The latest developments from China could be the trigger to alter sentiment and push the markets down to a new lower trading range.
It is important to remember that it was China’s sudden devaluation of the yuan and various government interventions in its stock market that triggered a wave of problems that led to the selloff in the global capital markets in late August 2015. Incidentally, we have been pointing to the possibility of a “bump down” in trading range in the US markets for the past year in our stock market forecasts.
The fact that China closed down its stock exchanges for the entire day after only a 7% decline sends two signals to investors. First, Chinese officials are not ready to exercise the discipline required to enable a market economy. Second, they remain quite worried that without an aggressive backstop, Chinese shares could tumble real hard, real fast.
To put things in a bit of perspective, you should note that...
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