Now we come to the Fannie/Freddie bailout. This is certainly a true bailout; not because taxpayers are on the hook for potentially $5.3 trillion, but because there was a moral hazard established once these formerly government agencies were transformed into publicly traded companies, knowing that if they screwed up they would be bailed out. I’m sick and tired of hearing these excuses by Washington that this company and that is “too big to fail.” Listen you crooks, if the...
Read moreLet me be clear about a few things. First, regardless who wins the upcoming presidential election, there will be no real change in America. In order to really understand why you have to know what is goin...
Read moreI’m not talking about the banks or even the retailers. We all know they will continue to slide. I’m talking about everything else. With no real median wage growth since 1999, and soaring inflation for gas, food and healthcare, it’s obvious consumers have had much less to spend. Not only has that hurt savings rates (including retirement contributions) but it’s also affected consumer spending. So don’t expect things to get better by Fall. In fact, I’m expecting...
Read moreWhile some would consider Cramer a “stock pumper,” others would consider him their savior. I would consider him the “Dr. Phil” of Wall Street because, similar to Phil, he designs shows based on resolving some controversial issue with the intended goal of helping lost souls. I find it of no surprise that Cramer has made appearances on Dr. Phil. Both are in the same line of work – cheeseball marketing. At the end of each show both Dr. Phil and Cramer emerge as...
Read moreIt’s shocking to see so many who remain in denial about the economy, specifically the pundits. Until they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (a ridiculously misleading metric – see my previous article “How Washington is Fooling You With GDP Data”) they refuse to admit we are in a recession. And the media acts as puppets, repeating these same lines without scrutinizing the data. Who do these people think they’re kidding? If you’re run...
Read moreThat’s right. You read it correctly. Now why would I say something that even most “experts” would laugh at? Because I want to point out once again how so many out there are in the dark, even the so-called experts; you remember, the guys who missed this entire meltdown. Of course, now with so many banks in a dangerous position, I’ve seen many advisers change face and jump on the doom bandwagon. Some have advised investors to remove their money from banks and buy U....
Read moreWith all that’s happened with the real estate and banking crisis, the word “bailout” has been plastered throughout the media with little discussion of exactly what a bailout entails. Supplying money to a distressed company does not by itself represent a bailout. It all depends on where the money is coming from, and whether or not a moral hazard has been created. Bear Stearns vs. LTCM Let’s look at some “bailouts” from the past. Let me just tell you right off...
Read moreThis is the second of a 3-part series on market forecasting. Part 1 can be found here. As you recall, the Dow made an all-time high in October 2007. Since then, it has made lower lows and lower highs, typical of a downward trend. But how far and how long will this bear market last?
Read moreI advise investors to use this rally in the financials to your benefit. If you took recent long positions in the financials, you might consider selling soon. More experienced and aggressive investors might start looking to take short positions soon. This market is very momentum-driven so you’ll want to wait for signs of a decline before going short. No doubt, the Fed’s bailout plan for Fannie and Freddie has sparked this rally, but it’s not a rally of substan...
Read moreThose of you who are familiar with my previous publications know my real estate forecasts remain unchanged since first published in 2006.
Read moreOn Friday, IndyMac joined the long and growing list of bankrupt mortgage companies (Accredited Home Lenders, Novastar Financial, Fremont General and dozens of others) that have been taken down by what has already surpassed mortgage and bank losses of the Savings & Loan Crisis. This was all predicted by me and in fact, I recommended investors to SHORT these stocks in 2007. Check here to download Chapter 12 of Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble. While Indy marks only the sixth b...
Read moreRunning Out of Options With the recent collapse in share price, both GSEs are going to have a very difficult time raising capital. You won’t find many buyers of the stock after its recent dive. And issuing debt doesn’t seem to be much of an option. The last thing investors want is to buy debt from companies involved in the mortgage mess. Even if they could find buyers, they would be forced to issue a very high coupon, which would add another drag on cash flows. For Fannie a...
Read moreYesterday, I discussed the consequences of the proposed bailout of Fannie and Freddie. While Paulson has hinted that there will be no government bailout for Freddie and Fannie, he clearly left the door open to intervention. "It is clear that some institutions, if they fail, can have a systemic impact." However, financial players need to be disciplined in managing risk and not expect the government to fly to their rescue, he added. "For market discipline to effectively constrain...
Read moreAs many of you may know, on March 27, 2008, Ford (F) completed negotiations to sell its Jaguar and Land Rover divisions to Tata Motors (TTM), a division of the Indian conglomerate Tata Group. The deal went for a reported $2.3 billion, despite Ford’s original cost of $5.2 billion for the duo ($2.5 billion for Jaguar in 1989 and $2.7 billion for Land Rover in 2000). However, after Ford pays $600 million into the pension funds of these companies, the deal will only net them $1.7 billion. B...
Read moreAmidst speculation that Freddie and its big brother Fannie are facing insolvency, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said the primary focus was supporting Fannie and Freddie "in their current form as they carry out their important mission." Well, the fact of the matter is that “carrying out their mission” is what got them into this mess to begin with. Paulson delivered the subtle message that has been interpreted by most that he won’t bail the GSEs out. But if the GSEs are...
Read moreWhile some of the recommendations in this commentary may seem like no-brainers, its real purpose is to illustrate how investment themes relate to the bigger picture.
Read moreIt is not my intention to get anyone to buy or sell Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) or XM Satellite Radio (XMSR). It is only my intention to help investors understand the full picture regarding the risks to satellite radio. Up to this point, I feel Wall Street has presented the only positive picture. In response, I have offered what I feel to be the missing piece to the puzzle. After considering both sides, it is up to you to determine what to do. Those who get upset and make personal attacks are...
Read moreYou’ve all probably seen or heard about the recently released Harvard Housing study. Among other things, the report discusses the fact that the median wage-earner is unable to afford the...
Read moreWith rare exception, investors should stay clear of traditional asset classes. If you haven’t already done so, you’d be wise to invest in commodities, gold, oil trusts, and foreign currencies (Yen and Swiss Franc). In addition, investors without short investment horizons should have some exposure in China and Latin America. Keeping cash on hand is also advised. When the market sells off, you may choose to buy in. But don’t expect it to last. Buying the U.S. market after se...
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