Opening Statement from the September 2015 CCPM Forecaster
Originally published on August 30, 2015
China and Yuan Devaluation
Two days after reporting a huge decline (8.3%) in exports for the month of July, China devalued the yuan by 2% on August 10. However, this alone was not the sole reason for the devaluation. China has also been experiencing sizable capital outflows due to the yuan strength. Thus, the devaluation was appropriate because it makes Chinese exports more competitive, reduces capital outflows and sends a message to international officials, financial institutions and investors that China is making progress towards creating a free floating currency. This will aid its efforts to become a reserve currency. However, the Chinese government’s recent stock market interventions remain as a concern to those who had hoped China would transition into a free market economy.
Within days of the devaluation, commodities began to sell off hard as investors digested the implications China’s economic slowdown. Soon after the capital markets followed suit. Then on Monday August 24, 2015 the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed by more than 1000 points in premarket trading due to panic selling by institutions. Since then many stock markets have joined the US market rebound. But investors would be foolish to assume further downside in the global markets is no longer a possibility...
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