How to Think Clearly

"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

If you want to fully understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analyses, you will need to learn how to think clearly if you already lack this vital skill.

For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.

The best way to begin clearing your mind is to move forward with this series of steps:

1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET, AND ONLY USE STREAMING SERVICES SPARINGLY.

2. REFUSE TO USE YOUR PHONE TO TEXT.

3. DO NOT USE A "SMART (DUMB) PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to browse the Internet unless absolutely necessary).

4. STAY AWAY FROM SOCIAL MEDIA (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Snap, Twitter, Tik Tok unless it is to spread links to this site). 

5. STAY OFF JEWTUBE.

6. AVOID ALL MEDIA (as much as possible).

The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.

You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after two sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.

Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they place importance on. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets and bogus online sources. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics, the more qualified they feel they are to share their views with others without realizing the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth. Furthermore, online sources are even more dangerous for misinformation, especially due to the fact that search algorithms have been designed to create confirmation bias. 

A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are often politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements, and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests to interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers rather than interviewing unbiased experts who might share different viewpoints than the host.

Once the audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media. 

Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV.  They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong. But they have developed confidence in speaking about these topics due to an inflated sense of expertise in topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.

One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.

We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason.  From there, we recommend other classics from Greek philosophers. After all, ancient Greek philosophers like Plato and Socrates created critical thinking.   

If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, ideally one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick, or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.





STOP Being Taken

If you want to do well as an investor, you must first understand how various forces are seeking to deceive you. 

Most people understand that Wall Street is looking to take their money.

But do they really understand the means by which Wall Street achieves these objectives? 

Once you understand the various tricks and scams practiced by Wall Street you will be better able to avoid being taken. 

Perhaps an even greater threat to investors is the financial media.

The single most important thing investors must do if they aim to become successful is to stay clear of all media.

That includes social media and other online platforms with investment content such as YouTube and Facebook, which are one million times worse than the financial media.

The various resources found within this website address these two issues and much more. 

Remember, you can have access to the best investment research in the world. But without adequate judgment, you will not do well as an investor.

You must also understand how the Wall Street and financial media parasites operate in order to do well as an investor. 

It is important to understand how the Jewish mafia operates so that you can beat them at their own game.

The Jewish mafia runs both Wall Street and the media. This cabal also runs many other industries.

We devote a great deal of effort exposing the Jewish mafia in order to position investors with a higher success rate in achieving their investment goals.

Always remember the following quotes as they apply to the various charlatans positioned by the media as experts and business leaders.   

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.” - King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain

It's also very important to remember this FACT.  All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal.

Just because something is published in print, online, or aired in broadcast media does not make it accurate. 

More often than not, the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted. 

The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask the following question in order to determine the credibility of the source.

Is the source biased in any way?  

That is, does the source have any agendas which would provide some kind of benefit accounting for conclusions that were made? 

Most individuals who operate websites or blogs sell ads or merchandise of some kind. In particular, websites that sell precious metals are not credible sources of information because the views published on these sites are biased and cannot be relied upon.

The following question is one of the first things you should ask before trusting anyone who is positioned as an expert. 

Is the person truly credible?  

Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media. 

Most individuals who have been provided with media exposure are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; those who buy advertisements. 

In the case of the financial genre, instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible.

It's much more important to carefully examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day.  Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record. 

Don't ever believe the claims made by the source or the host interviewing the source regarding their track record. 

Always verify their track record yourself. 

The above question requires only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.

We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other.

There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis.

Mike has been a professional in the financial industry for nearly three decades. 

Alhough he publishes numerous articles and videos addressing the dark side of the industry, the core collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes

Also, the Image Library contains nearly 8,000 images, most of which are annotated.


At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't pump gold, silver, or equities because we are not promoters or marketers.

We actually expose precious metals pumpers, while revealing their motives, means, and methods.

We do not sell advertisements.

We actually go to great lengths to expose the ad-based content scam that's so pervasive in the world today. 

We do not receive any compensation from our content, other than from our investment research, which is not located on this website. 

We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research and unique insight.







Media Lies

If you listen to the media, most likely at minimum it's going to cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of your life time.

The deceit, lies, and useless guidance from the financial media is certainly a large contributor of these losses.

But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media encourages and even imposes upon its audience.

You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed, or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media.

But I can guarantee you that with rare exception this will become the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on media.

It gets worse.

By listening to the media you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through excessive consumption of prescription drugs, and/or as a result of watching ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.

And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" as a means by which to escape the toxic nature of the "mainstream" media, you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau, Alex Jones, Joe Rogan, and many others.

This could be a deadly decision. As bad as the so-called "mainstream" media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.

There are countless con artists spread throughout the media who operate in the same manner. They pretend to be on your side as they "expose" the "evil" government and corporations.

Their aim is to scare you into buying their alternatives.  This addresses the nutritional supplements industry which has become a huge scam.  

 

Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?

The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay its bills.

The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying advertisements.

And in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause.

The media does this by airing idiots and con artists who mislead and confuse the audience.

By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused.

The financial media sets up the audience so that they become needy after having lost large amounts of money listening to their "experts." Desperate for professional help, the audience contacts Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, and precious metals dealers that are aired on financial networks. This is why these firms pay big money for adverting slots in the financial media.

We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media."  It really all the same. 

In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed.

And the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control distribution of the so-called "alternative media."

The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."  

The tactic is a very common one used by con men.

The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties.

In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (e.g. trade policy and healthcare) because all U.S. politicians are controlled by corporate America. Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.

On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media.

We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.  




 

Why Stathis Was Banned

To date, we know of no one who has established a more accurate track record in the investment markets since 2006 than Mike Stathis.  

Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.  

This has been the case from day one when he was black-balled by the publishing industry after having written his landmark 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse

From that point on, he was black-balled throughout all so-called mainstream media and then even the so-called alternative media. 

With very rare exception, you aren't even going to hear him on the radio or anywhere else being interviewed.  

Ask yourself why. 

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either, unless its by people whom he has exposed.  

You aren't likely to ever read or hear of his remarkable investment research track record anywhere, unless you read about it on this website.

You should be wondering why this might be.

Some of you already know the answer.

The media banned Mike Stathis because the trick used by the media is to promote cons and clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street, gold dealers, etc. 

Because the media is run by the Jewish mafia and because most Jews practice a severe form of tribalism, the media will only promote Jews and gentiles who represent Jewish businesses.  

And as for radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so ignorant that they assume those who are plastered throughout media are credible.

And because they haven't heard Stathis anywhere in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure.  And they are too lazy to go through his work because they realize they are too stupid to understand the accuracy and relevance of his research. 

Top investment professionals who know about Mike Stathis' track record have a much different view of him. But they cannot say so in public because Stathis is now considered a "controversial" figure due to his stance on the Jewish mafia. 

Most people are in it for themselves. Thus, they only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads.

This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists.

We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies, and fraud.

We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website prior to writing about the Jewish mafia.

Mike Stathis was banned by all media early on because he exposed the realities of the United States.

The Jewish mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street, corporate America, free trade, U.S. healthcare, and much more.

Stathis has also been banned by alternative media because he exposed the truth about gold and silver. 

We have even been banned from use of email marketing providers as a way to cripple our abilities to expand our reach. 

You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it.

BUT YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT THE JEWISH MAFIA.

Because Mr. Stathis exposed so much in his 2006 book America's Financial Apocalypse, he was banned.

He was banned for writing about the following topics in detail: political correctness, illegal immigration, affirmative action, as well as the economic realities behind America's disastrous healthcare system, the destructive impact of free trade, and many other topics. He also exposed Wall Street fraud and the mortgage derivatives scam that would end of catalyzing the worst global crisis in history. 

It's critical to note that the widespread ban on Mr. Stathis began well before he mentioned the Jewish mafia or even Jewish control of any kind.

It was in fact his ban that led him to realize precisely what was going on.

We only began discussing the role of the criminality of the Jewish mafia by late-2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media.

Therefore, no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish mafia led to Mike being black-listed (not that it would even be acceptable).  

If you dare to expose Jewish control or anything under Jewish control, you will be black-balled by all media so the masses will never hear the truth.

Just remember this. Mike does not have to do what he is doing. 

Instead, he could do what everyone else does and focus on making money. 

He has already sacrificed a huge fortune to speak the truth hoping to help people steer clear of fraudsters and to educate people as to the realities in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry. 

  

Rules to Remember

Rule #1: Those With Significant Exposure Are NOT on Your Side.  

No one who has significant exposure should ever be trusted. Such individuals should be assumed to be gatekeepers until proven otherwise.  I have never found an exception to this rule.

Understand that those responsible for permitting or even facilitating exposure have given exposure to specific individuals for a very good reason. And that reason does not serve your best interests. 

In short, I have significant empirical evidence to conclude that everyone who has a significant amount of exposure has been bought off (in some way) by those seeking to distort reality and control the masses. This is not a difficult concept to grasp. It's propaganda 101.   

Rule #2: Con Artists Like to Form Syndicates.

Before the Internet was created, con artists were largely on their own. Once the Internet was released to the civilian population, con artists realized that digital connectivity could amplify their reach, and thus the effectiveness of their mind control tactics. This meant digital connectivity could amplify the money con artists extract from their victims by forming alliances with other con artists.

Teaming up with con artists leads to a significantly greater volume of content and distraction, such that victims of these con artists are more likely to remain trapped within the web of deceit, as well as being more convinced that their favorite con artist is legit. 

Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps." This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network.  You will see the same con artists interviewing each other,referencing each other, (e.g. a hat tip) on the same blog rolls, attending the same conferences, mentioning their con artist peers, and so forth.

Rule #3: There's NO Free Lunch.  

Whenever something is marketed as being "free" you can bet the item or service is either useless or else the ultimate price you'll pay will be much greater than if you had paid money for it in the beginning. 

You should always seek to establish a monetary relationship with all vendors because this establishes a financial link between you the customer and the vendor. Therefore, the vendor will tend to serve and protect your best interests because you pay his bills. 

Those who use the goods and services from vendors who offer their products for free will treated not as customers, but as products, because these vendors will exploit users who are obtaining  their products for free in order to generate income.   

Use of free emails, free social media, free content is all complete garbage designed to obtain your data and sell it to digital marketing firms.

From there you will be brainwashed with cleverly designed ads. You will be monitored and your identity wil eventually be stolen. 

Fraudsters often pitch the "free" line in order to lure greedy people who think they can get something for free. 

Perhaps now you understand why the system of globalized trade was named "free trade." 

As you might appreciate, free trade has been a complete disaster and scam designed to enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor. 

There are too many examples of goods and services positioned as being free, when in reality, the customers get screwed.  

Rule #4: Beware of Manipulation Using Word Games. 

When manipulators want to get the masses to side with their propaganda and ditch more legitimate alternatives they often select psychologically relevant labels to indicate positive or negative impressions.

For instance, the financial parasites running America's medical-industrial complex have designated the term "socialized medicine" to replace the original, more accurate term, "universal healthcare." This play on words has been done to sway the masses from so much as even investigating universal healthcare, because the criminals want to keep defrauding people with their so-called "market-based" healthcare scam, which has accounted for the number one cause of personal bankruptcies in the USA for many years.  

When Wall Street wanted to convince the American people to go along with NAFTA, they used the term "free trade" to describe the current system of trade which has devastated the U.S. labor force.

In reality, free trade is unfair trade and only benefits the wealthy and large corporations.

There are many examples on this play on words such as the "sharing economy" and so on.  

Rule #5: Whenever Someone Promotes Something that Offers to Empower You, It's Usually a Scam.

This applies to the life coaches, self-help nonsense, libertarian pitches, FIRE movement, and so on.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Unlike what the corporate fascists claim, we DO need government.

And no, you can NOT become financially independent and retire early unless you sell this con game to suckers.  

Rule #6: "Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

Following this rule is forcing the small and dewindling group of intelligent people left in the world to cease interacting with people. 

You might need to get accustomed to being alone if you're intelligent and would rather not waste your time arguing with someone who is so ignorant, that they have no chance to realize what's really going in this world. 

It would seem that Dunning-Kruger has engulfed much of the population, especially in the West.     

Start Here

Update on America's Second Great Depression (Part 1)

Overview
Washington, Wall Street and their partners in crime, the media, have continued to spread the myths of an economic recovery since late summer 2009.

In response to the propaganda, the stock market has continued to rally. But most individual investors have been left out of this tremendous rally.

But that was NOT the case for subscribers of the AVAIA newsletter, as can be seen here (examine the market forecasting section; ever since my public recommendation to buy into the Dow at 6500, I have kept subscribers in the market since then for about 90-95% of the gains since then). 

Yet, the economic data paints a different picture than the media presents. Make no mistake, we are seeing the early stages of what will written in history books as America’s Second Great Depression, just as I predicted in America’s Financial Apocalypse (2006).  
 
Who are you going to trust? The media and their government hacks who have been wrong over and over, or someone who has been right about virtually everything over the past five years?
 
Who are you going to trust, people with clear political and financial agendas, or someone with neither?
 
Ever since the implosion of the largest real estate and credit bubble in history, I have published numerous unfortunate realities. See (1) and (2)  
 
Since then, I have not altered these views.  See (3) (4) and (5) 
  
With the national debt approaching $13 trillion, no real improvements to the worst and longest recession since the Great Depression, blue chips slashing dividends for the first time in history (eg. DOW), century-old financial institutions now in bankruptcy (Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual), trillions of dollars in bailouts, the largest year-over-year decline in GDP, state tax revenues and housing starts since the Great Depression, over 7 million foreclosures, an additional 7 million more foreclosures over the next 2 to 4 years, more than 8 million lost jobs with about 32 million Americans out of work, more than 40 million Americans on food stamps, a healthcare crisis that has not been addressed, a continuing trend of excessive inflation for food, energy and healthcare, and consumer spending coming to a halt…you can be assured of many things over the next several years:
 
  • Several more stimulus packages (which won’t offer any permanent assistance)
  • Soaring consumer loan defaults
  • Soaring commercial real estate defaults
  • Several million additional foreclosures
  • Rapidly rising and high interest rates
  • Muted real wage growth
  • Declining job quality
  • Lingering high unemployment for several years
  • Significant downside in the U.S. stock market
  • Continuation of employee benefit cuts
  • Continuation of healthcare inflation with millions more medical bankruptcies
  • A deepening of the entitlement crisis
  • Excessive inflation over an extended period OR massive inflation that will be countered by double-digit interest rates
  • A long period of muted consumer spending
  • Much higher taxes (not just income, but all taxes)
  • A worsening of America’s Second Great Depression, with up to two lost decades.
  • World War III
At best, the U.S. will continue to experience economic malaise for well over a decade. As the nation progresses through this treacherous period, any of the small improvements will be offset by longer-term issues that are virtually impossible to overcome.
 
  • Most of the 80 million baby boomers will never be able to fully retire. They did not have adequate retirement savings even before the economic collapse. Now they are in much worse shape. As a result, they will not only pull out of the stock market much faster as a means to survive, but they will be dead consumers.
  • Most states will continue to struggle with budget gaps for many years. This will lead to even more cuts to vital programs.
  • The entitlement tsunami will engulf Washington’s budget, causing a sustained period of massive deficits. This will be addressed by further cuts to benefits and premium hikes to Medicare and Medicaid.
  • The massive national debt will continue to threat the solvency of the U.S. This will lead to a long period of high interest rates even after the approaching interest rate surge, expected to mount within a couple of years.
 
A Broad Look at the Economy
Now let’s examine some facts about the economy.
 
The current recession is not only the most severe since the post-war period, but is or was (according to official statements that it has ended) the longest in duration, as illustrated by the first chart.
 
 
Furthermore, the “previous” recession (which is still in progress although Washington claims it is over) registered the worst year-over-year decline in GDP in decades.
 
At the close of January 2010, Washington reported GDP growth of 5.7% (revised down from 5.9%) for Q4 2009. This represents the biggest increase since 2003, which coincided with the market bottom of the previous recession.
 
This data is unreliable and has been inflated by debt spending. I have discussed the problems with GDP previously. 
 
But where is the economic growth?
 
There is none.
 
Real Estate
Surely by now, real estate has started to pick up, right?  Have a look at housing starts.
 
 
 
Now have a look at the mortgage resets. As you can see, the mortgage reset avalanche is gaining steam and will peak in early fall of 2011. This is going to flood the market with millions of additional homes as I have discussed on numerous occasions. See (6), (7), (8) and (9)
 
 
 
 
 

 

While I had forecast a bottom in median residential real estate prices in 2009 (the price decline which was consistent with my original estimate of a 30% to 35% decline first made in America’s Financial Apocalypse), this by no means a recovery in the real estate market.

For a variety of reasons, the climb back up to the previous highs reached in 2006 will take at least another ten years, as stated previously. See here.

Keep in mind that as interest rates rise, this will mute a good portion of any gains in real estate price appreciation.
 
Furthermore, as more foreclosures hit the market, prices will plunge, erasing any gains made.
 
In fact, the only places where the real estate market is doing well are the same places that didn’t get stuck holding Wall Street’s toxic assets; namely China, (although it did suffer some losses, especially from Citigroup) Hong Kong, Brazil, Australia and Canada.
 
As a reflection of the skepticism of the GDP data, the market sold off hard. Over a short period, the Dow approached a critical support at 9900 in early February.
 
Even Wall Street cheerleaders and economic hacks are admitting these latest numbers are not sustainable. They realize that they can no longer continue to spread the myth of a recovery while unemployment remains high, with no signs of trailing off for many years.
 
Since then, the Dow has staged an impressive rally as the propagandists worked overtime to keep the sinking ship afloat.
 
With the Dow now over 11,000, the “establishment” is still in control of the game. While there is likely to be a bit more upside in the market for 2010, investors should be looking for position exits rather than entries.
 
I do not have a crystal ball, but I do know a few things for certain. Even if the market holds current levels or even rises further (which appears to be likely), once interest rates begin to rise, the market will get hit hard. As you can imagine, this has adverse implications for the bond market exclusive of any further issues.
 
Why do I say this? 
 
Because rates must rise by a large amount over the next few years, if not before.
 
Of course there are many other things that could send the market plummeting. Rising interest rates is just one example that we know will surface for sure. How much the market declines will depend on when and by how much rates are raised.
 
Another thing you should bank on is that the Federal Reserve will do all that it can to mitigate the downward market momentum as a result of interest rate hikes.
 
Why? Because, unlike the case with the European Central Bank which is focused on preventing inflation, the Federal Reserve’s priority remains with Wall Street. But as we have seen, what’s good for Wall Street is usually bad for Main Street.
 
Employment Data
The latest unemployment numbers came in at 9.7% (U-3). However, as I have discussed previously, this number really does not tell the full story. There are many assumptions that serve to boost U-3 data, such as the birth/death adjustment.
 
It is likely that if current unemployment data was properly adjusted for this highly inaccurate assumption alone, the real U-3 would stand at over 10.3%. But of course there are many other erroneous assumptions and deletions that make this data unreliable.
 
Layoffs peaked during Q1 of 2009, averaging 2.5 million in each of the three months, or 119,000 each business day! Think about that number for a minute.
 
Does that sound to you like a recovery is in place?
 
What makes the employment data even worse is the fact that new hires have continued to decline since reaching a peak in late 2006. What that means is that the total number of unemployed has continued to increase, as the following charts illustrate. 
 
In December 2007, there were 5.1 million new hires. In October 2009, there were only 4.0 million new hires, representing a decrease of 22%.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
What this data does not reveal is the duration of unemployed workers. As the next chart shows, this number has skyrocketed well beyond previous highs since the inception of recorded data in the late 1960s.
 
 
 
Layoffs slowing but No Hiring
 
 
 
 
 
 
Furthermore, it is much more important to consider the U-6 data. This number accounts for marginally employed (workers who are working part-time but want full-time work) and discouraged workers. While official U-6 data is also understated due to erroneous assumptions, it still provides a better indicator of the employment situation.
 
You should note that neither of these unemployment metrics factor in the number of work hours per week. As I have stated, employers typically reduce work hours during recessions.  
 
Accordingly to government data, the number of unemployed Americans stands at around 16 million, with the U-6 population of unemployed and underemployed at nearly 26 million. My own estimates for U-3 and U-6 are 18 million and 32 million respectively. 
 
Now let’s have a closer look at the most recent employment data. The following tables show the percentage unemployed for each duration. The first table shows the percentage of unemployed for 15 weeks or more.
 
As the first table shows, 60.5% of unemployed Americans have been out of work for 4 months or longer.

Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Of Total Unemployed, Percent Unemployed 15 Weeks & over
Labor force status: Unemployed
Age: 16 years and over
Duration : unemployed/laid off:  15 weeks and over
Percent/rates: 
Percent of unemployed within group
 
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
24.3
22.3
22.3
22.5
22.8
22.3
23.7
23.9
23.0
24.1
23.4
23.6
2001
23.0
24.4
24.3
23.2
24.0
24.1
25.5
26.5
27.3
27.0
29.1
29.5
2002
31.3
31.9
32.5
32.9
35.3
36.0
35.6
34.6
35.9
36.6
36.0
37.6
2003
36.8
36.9
36.9
38.0
37.1
38.6
40.5
39.6
38.9
39.4
39.8
40.2
2004
40.0
40.0
39.5
36.4
37.8
38.2
35.9
35.3
36.6
37.7
37.3
36.8
2005
36.6
36.3
36.9
35.0
35.0
32.4
33.2
34.5
33.4
33.2
32.7
33.4
2006
32.4
35.3
33.8
32.9
32.8
30.8
32.1
31.9
32.3
30.5
31.4
31.0
2007
30.7
31.7
33.8
33.1
32.6
32.8
33.4
32.6
32.5
31.6
32.8
32.9
2008
33.6
32.6
32.0
34.9
32.8
33.7
35.3
35.8
37.7
39.4
37.6
40.2
2009
39.6
42.3
44.2
46.5
48.3
52.3
53.8
52.6
55.4
56.4
58.8
58.3
2010
58.4
58.9
60.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The next table shows the percentage of unemployed who have been jobless for 4 to 6 months. As you can see, it’s 16.4%. So now, after looking at the first table and the second table, it’s easy to see what’s going on. More people are remaining unemployed for longer periods.
 
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Of Total Unemployed, Percent Unemployed 15 Weeks & over
Labor force status: Unemployed
Age: 16 years and over
Duration : unemployed/laid off:  15-26 weeks
Percent/rates: Percent of unemployed within group
 
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
11.6
11.5
11.3
11.8
11.8
11.0
11.4
11.7
11.5
12.8
12.9
12.2
2001
11.7
12.7
13.2
12.2
14.0
12.9
14.7
14.3
15.8
15.2
15.2
15.9
2002
16.7
17.1
16.6
16.1
16.6
16.5
16.6
15.8
16.8
16.7
15.5
15.5
2003
16.3
15.1
15.9
16.1
15.5
15.8
18.5
17.4
16.4
17.0
16.5
17.1
2004
17.3
17.2
15.9
14.3
15.9
15.7
15.2
14.9
15.2
16.1
15.8
16.0
2005
15.5
15.9
15.2
14.0
14.9
13.9
14.5
15.6
14.5
14.3
14.7
14.8
2006
15.7
16.6
15.1
14.2
13.7
14.1
13.7
13.8
14.4
14.6
15.0
14.8
2007
14.5
13.9
15.1
15.6
15.9
16.2
15.0
15.2
15.1
14.0
13.9
15.6
2008
15.3
14.9
15.0
16.9
14.1
15.1
16.2
16.4
16.8
17.3
16.7
17.4
2009
17.3
18.9
19.6
19.0
20.5
22.7
19.6
18.9
19.5
20.4
20.1
18.5
2010
17.2
18.0
16.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The final table reveals that 44.1% of unemployed have been jobless for 6 months for longer. Notably, there was a huge jump from February to March.
 
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Of Total Unemployed, Percent Unemployed 15 Weeks & over
Labor force status: Unemployed
Age: 16 years and over
Duration : unemployed/laid off:  27 weeks and over
Percent/rates: Percent of unemployed within group
 
 
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
12.7
10.8
11.0
10.7
11.1
11.2
12.3
12.2
11.5
11.3
10.6
11.4
2001
11.3
11.7
11.1
11.0
10.0
11.2
10.8
12.2
11.5
11.8
13.9
13.6
2002
14.6
14.9
15.9
16.8
18.8
19.6
19.0
18.9
19.1
19.9
20.5
22.1
2003
20.5
21.8
21.0
21.9
21.6
22.8
22.0
22.2
22.5
22.4
23.4
23.1
2004
22.7
22.9
23.6
22.1
21.9
22.5
20.7
20.3
21.4
21.5
21.4
20.8
2005
21.2
20.4
21.8
21.0
20.1
18.5
18.7
18.9
18.9
18.9
18.0
18.7
2006
16.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
19.1
16.7
18.3
18.1
17.9
15.8
16.4
16.2
2007
16.2
17.8
18.7
17.6
16.7
16.6
18.4
17.3
17.4
17.6
18.8
17.3
2008
18.3
17.7
17.0
18.0
18.7
18.5
19.1
19.4
20.9
22.1
20.9
22.9
2009
22.4
23.4
24.6
27.5
27.7
29.6
34.2
33.6
35.9
36.0
38.7
39.8
2010
41.2
40.9
44.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The next chart illustrates this worrisome trend of duration of unemployment.
 
 
 
 
 
The problem with being out of work for an extended period (besides the immediate financial problems it creates), is that the longer one remains out of work, the higher chance that they will have to change careers.
 
And it’s not likely that a career-change will lead to the same wages as the person earned in their previous career since they are starting fresh. That’s the big problem with the unemployment picture that no one seems to get. What does this mean? It simply adds more fuel to America’s long period of declining living standards.
 
In addition, because much of the stimulus will not be dispersed for a few years, and due to the continued trade deficit, as well as the mounting liabilities for entitlements and interest on the national debt, massive annual deficits will persist throughout the next decade. My own estimates are considerably larger.
 
GDP and Employment
Next, let’s have a look at the connection between employment and GDP.
 
In order to get the unemployment rate down by just 1%, GDP would have to grow by at least 5% by 2010. This goal is going to be virtually impossible short of a miracle, even with the massive spending by Washington.   
 
I’ll give you some assistance here. In the BEST of scenarios, based on current spending projections, I would estimate that over the next ten years, GDP will grow by an average of 3.5%. A more realistic number might be closer to 3.0%.
 
Even assuming the more optimistic GDP estimate for a 5-year period, the U.S. economy would need to grow by about 5% annually for the remaining 5 years in order to bring unemployment down to around the “fully employed” level of around 5.0%.  
 
I can tell you now this scenario is EXTREMELY unlikely, UNLESS we see many additional stimulus packages.
 
Using debt for additional stimulus packages will be like trading hand grenades for ballistic missiles because more debt spending will hamper the long-term growth of the economy for an extended duration. 
 
GDP growth really doesn’t matter unless you adjust for debt-spending. The U.S. could grow by 5% for five years if Washington borrowed tens of trillions of dollars to pump into the economy. What is needed is real growth, not debt-fueled growth. Without real growth, you have an illusion, just like the growth after the dotcom bubble burst. 
 
Even without further spending, the nation’s entitlements threaten to send America into bankruptcy within the next 20 years. This is another issue I addressed in America’s Financial Apocalypse at great length, unlike other books that only focused on the small picture.
 
As you can imagine by now, what this means is a lost decade at best. Fifteen years more likely, while two decades is very possible.
 
Previously, I discussed the fact that there would be no real recovery for most Americans 
 
You should also note that about 65% of the 5.7% GDP growth was from industrial production; not to meet consumer demand, but to rebuild inventories.
 
So the next leg is for consumers to deplete inventories so that production will continue. This isn’t going to happen. You should expect to see Q1 2010 GDP data much lower and I expect even worse data for Q2 2010.
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDP and Debt
The various bailout and stimulus packages have already helped swell the 2009 federal deficit to an estimated $1.6 trillion. And forecasts show that the deficit is going to soar for many years to come.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As the next chart shows, the effects of the collapse have permanently lowered GDP through at least 2020. This is based primarily on projections for employment and GDP. 
 
GDP would have to average 6-7% annually over the next decade in order to recoup pre-crisis levels. That’s not going to happen unless America uses GDP data from China or India.
 
 
Financial Crisis Permanently Lowers GDP
GDP % Change, Before and After Crisis
 
 
 
Effect of the Crisis on the Fiscal Outlook of the U.S.
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
 
 
 
The next chart shows forecasts for real GDP (GDP adjusted for inflation). Even with the government’s understatement of inflation, things do not look good. In fact, I view this data to be highly inaccurate. Other than 3-4 quarters, we have not seen real GDP growth in many years.
 
After adjusting for debt spending and the illusion created by the real estate bubble, it is likely that we have only seen 1-2 quarters of GDP growth since 2001. 
 
 
 
 
The final chart in the series shows a rebound in household net worth, mainly due to the strong rebound in the U.S. stock market since March 2009.
 
With real estate prices expected to remain well below pre-collapse levels for many years, in addition to the bleak employment situation, I do not see an appreciable or sustainable rebound in household net worth for many years. This has obvious implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth.
 
 
 
 
 
Americans Have No Vote
Of course, republican hacks have made this a political issue, without bothering to remind you that it was President Bush who set a precedent for bailouts and wasteful stimulus plans. Meanwhile, Obama has made things worse without addressing the real problems.
 
The fact is, the results will be the same regardless who is in office because America no longer has a real democratic process. The key decisions are made by a group of individuals you rarely hear about. The president merely serves as the puppet. This has been going on for many years. 
 
As I have discussed many times in the past, the Republican Party has seized control over the Tea Party movement, thwarting the original intended purpose of building support for complete political transformation from all of Washington. In fact, I view the ridiculous nature of these events as a reflection of the hidden controlled opposition movement in America.
 
The fact is that it matters not who is in the White House. The best interests of working-class Americans have been neglected for many years. 
 
This dynamic isn’t going to change without a drastic movement from the masses. But this is unlikely to occur since most Americans have been brainwashed by a media industry controlled by corporations and political interests.
 
As you can imagine, the decline in sales, income, property and other tax revenues has also hit cities and states very hard. This has resulted in budget deficits for most cities and all but two states.
 
Has running the currency printing presses in overdrive and accumulating record levels of federal debt been worth the results? 
 
Absolutely not.
 
Beyond this clearly disastrous situation, I am further troubled knowing with a high degree of certainty that there will be several more stimulus plans by Washington over the next few years, regardless who is in office.
 
I warned about the massive debt in America’s Financial Apocalypse, as well as several times since then. For instance, here. 
 
Over 40 million Americans are on food stamps, or more than 13% of Americans. This is the highest rate on record, going back 50 years.
 
Finally, have a look at these two charts of unemployment for GDP for key economies. Can you spot anything wrong with these charts?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Let me give you a hint. When you have a high unemployment rate along with a high GDP, it means you are achieving by spending more money than you generate. That’s not such a disastrous situation if you are a nation with large cash reserves like China. However, even China is tied to the global bubble and will soon feel the effects of the needle. 
 
So what happened? Have a look. See here and here.  
 
Those who read America's Financial Apocalypse (2006) and Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble (2007) were not only alerted to the catastrophe we see today, but were provided with SPECIFIC ways to profit that have yielded over 100% gains since then. Click here and here for some examples.
  
If you want access to institutional-level research, analysis and investment guidance, subscribe to the AVA Investment Analytics newsletter today.
 
If you want a chance to make $100,000, check this offer.
 
I am quite confident there is absolutely no one who can come close to my track record on the collapse, in the accuracy, depth and detail of forecasts.
 
In fact, I'm so confident of this that I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I'm offering a $100,000 reward for the first person who can prove that another expert can simply match my track record. 
 
Why don't you start with the guys in the media club who have positioned as experts, like Faber, Schiff, Shiller, Prechter and so on. They don't come close.

Once you have convinced yourself of my track record, you need to ask why the media continues to banned me.
 
Allow me to cut to the chase. The financial media works for Wall Street. Wall Street buys the ads and commercial, so the last thing the media wants is to provide you with credible experts with good track records. Instead, they interview extremists with terrible track record, offering no specific guidance.  This is the way it works. If you don't see this by now, you are forever doomed.
 
Do your part to spread the word about me. It’s the only way we can stop the lies from being flooded to the public.
It’s time to get up to speed on things. You can start here: Media Deception and Lies
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Print article

Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.

These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.

Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

This publication (written, audio and video) represents the commentary and/or criticisms from Mike Stathis or other individuals affiliated with Mike Stathis or AVA Investment Analytics (referred to hereafter as the “author”). Therefore, the commentary and/or criticisms only serve as an opinion and therefore should not be taken to be factual representations, regardless of what might be stated in these commentaries/criticisms. There is always a possibility that the author has made one or more unintentional errors, misspoke, misinterpreted information, and/or excluded information which might have altered the commentary and/or criticisms. Hence, you are advised to conduct your own independent investigations so that you can form your own conclusions. We encourage the public to contact us if we have made any errors in statements or assumptions. We also encourage the public to contact us if we have left out relevant information which might alter our conclusions. We cannot promise a response, but we will consider all valid information.


0:00
0:00